Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.698415 2.248168 2.995306 4.112419 5.790079 8.302106e+00 1.252632e+01
2025-01-05 1.158489 1.746003 2.693166 4.427849 7.768100 1.453159e+01 3.132656e+01
2025-01-12 0.776005 1.286018 2.221664 4.240866 9.076110 2.220506e+01 7.279242e+01
2025-01-19 0.530610 0.946553 1.792453 3.888529 10.001761 3.226101e+01 1.765147e+02
2025-01-26 0.403939 0.773967 1.607756 3.995377 12.687125 5.847444e+01 7.345546e+02
2025-02-02 0.332211 0.683762 1.564013 4.512945 18.451438 1.400339e+02 9.775656e+03
2025-02-09 0.283147 0.624094 1.571063 5.306208 29.110756 4.498094e+02 3.377609e+07
2025-02-16 0.233697 0.543169 1.476485 5.697021 41.138415 1.487410e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.187484 0.452503 1.300896 5.554925 50.375426 4.556040e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.150082 0.372698 1.118685 5.177950 57.032050 1.443451e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.129924 0.335705 1.071373 5.584199 83.913150 2.951611e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.112978 0.302298 1.019483 5.938871 123.089539 6.583887e+10 NaN
2025-03-23 0.099356 0.276335 0.992009 6.589756 209.071108 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.087479 0.251861 0.957266 7.208081 363.763525 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.074073 0.217376 0.853120 6.908926 471.366353 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.062261 0.184975 0.741261 6.300256 533.243626 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.055115 0.167564 0.698550 6.520401 873.624489 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050789 0.159357 0.701892 7.501393 2207.629277 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047602 0.154512 0.722965 9.031346 8614.409827 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043420 0.144176 0.702992 9.813133 28910.766594 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038597 0.129647 0.645661 9.556029 59920.384497 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034028 0.114987 0.579018 8.839829 88403.062387 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031541 0.108723 0.568107 9.643908 854702.874485 NaN NaN